---
title: "Fortune's Favour case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fortune's Favour ($53.14) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 38 items with odds, observed 77.53% over 10 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fortune's Favour](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fortune's Favour

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=all)

Price · $53.14 · 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $47.83 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.53% · 10 openings, odds method

Variance · 151.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 323 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 10 openings · below min

30 days · 10 openings · below min

since tracking started · 10 openings · below min

-0.5% 420.0% 840.5%

**Small sample.** 10 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=7d) | 10 | 77.53% ±762.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457) | 10 | 77.53% ±762.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/457?window=all) | 10 | 77.53% ±762.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $48K 48,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.9K 15,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $12K 12,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.3K 11,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,800 4,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,800 3,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,100 3,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,650 1,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cologne-2016-cobblestone-souvenir-package) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $314 314 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 33 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| markeloff \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-markeloff-cologne-2016) | 1 in 33 | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-dust-ii-souvenir-package) | 1 in 33 | $44.00 44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| peet \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-peet-cologne-2015) | 1 in 20 | $42.00 42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| FalleN (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 100 | $41.00 41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| captainMo \| Boston 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Rickeh (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rickeh-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 100 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| nawwk (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nawwk-gold-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 33 | $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tenzki-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 33 | $17.00 17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| coldzera (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 20 | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $9.00 9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 33 | $8.00 8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Well-Worn) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.00 6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get You music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-lifes-not-out-to-get-you) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/katowice-2019-overpass-souvenir-package) | 1 in 17 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Patch \| Entropiq (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-entropiq-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=457`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=457)

[StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-08 14:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-08 14:19 UTC

[Patch | Entropiq (Gold) | Stockholm 2021 patch · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-entropiq-gold-stockholm-2021) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 14:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-07 21:29 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN 5.46x 2026-11-07 21:29 UTC

[Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.23x 2026-11-07 21:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Caramel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $9.00 9 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Caramel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $9.00 9 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

[Sticker | peet | Cologne 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-peet-cologne-2015) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $42.00 42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.79x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

[Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $53.14 53.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.23x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $53.14 | 90.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.8% contraband 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% #EB4B4B 4.4% #B0C3D9 17.1% high 6.0% #4B69FF 21.0% Base Grade 3.0% #D32CE6 6.0% classified 6.0% #8847FF 10.0% Restricted 8.8% base 6.0% #8847ff 4.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt