--- title: "Hope case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hope ($5.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 14 items with odds, observed 39.22% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Hope](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Hope A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $4.50 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 39.22% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 13.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 43 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min -0.5% 111.8% 224.0% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=24h) | 14 | 31.57% ±191.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=7d) | 43 | 39.87% ±109.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460) | 44 | 39.22% ±108.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/460?window=all) | 44 | 39.22% ±108.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $135 135 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $126 126 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tenzki-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 33 | $17.00 17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× | | [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Well-Worn) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/katowice-2019-overpass-souvenir-package) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $2.00 2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.74 0.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.30× | | [Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.70× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.14× | | [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-battle-scarred) | 17.1% | $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=460`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=460) [Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.74 0.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.74 0.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) [JGHD23YT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/JGHD23YT) $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 89.97% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% #EB4B4B 1.0% #4B69FF 8.0% classified 3.0% base 5.0% #8847ff 5.0% Classified 5.9% Rare 8.0% restricted 14.0% #4b69ff 8.0% industrial 10.0% blue 14.0% milspec 17.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt