--- title: "Vigilance case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vigilance ($182.72) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 36.67% over 9 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Vigilance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Vigilance A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=all) Price · $182.72 · 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $164.44 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.67% · 9 openings, odds method Variance · 37.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 9 openings · below min 30 days · 9 openings · below min since tracking started · 9 openings · below min -0.5% 259.8% 520.0% **Small sample.** 9 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=24h) | 6 | 32.65% ±486.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=7d) | 9 | 36.67% ±397.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466) | 9 | 36.67% ±397.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/466?window=all) | 9 | 36.67% ±397.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $42K 42,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $18K 18,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,500 7,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $4,650 4,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,850 2,850 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $1,965 1,965 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $950 950 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $485 485 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $265 265 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 10.0% | $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $46.00 46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) | 14.0% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.17× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 17.0% | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=466`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=466) [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.55x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.07x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) [JACK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/JACK1) $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.07x 2026-11-07 08:49 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-07 08:49 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-07 08:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $183 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.3% extraordinary 0.1% contraband 0.3% Covert 8.3% covert knife 10.0% mil spec 11.0% industrial 14.0% restricted 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt