--- title: "Ducky case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ducky ($18.54) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 58.64% over 23 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ducky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ducky A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=all) Price · $18.54 · 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $16.69 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.64% · 23 openings, odds method Variance · 28.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 23 openings · below min 30 days · 23 openings · below min since tracking started · 23 openings · below min -0.5% 138.3% 277.0% **Small sample.** 23 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=7d) | 23 | 58.64% ±217.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467) | 23 | 58.64% ±217.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/467?window=all) | 23 | 58.64% ±217.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,050 8,050 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $800 800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $750 750 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $335 335 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $288 288 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $135 135 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $105 105 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $65.00 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.0% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.79× | | [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 11.0% | $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) | 15.0% | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.03× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 27.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 31.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.70× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=467`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=467) [M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.62x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.54x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.54x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-field-tested) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [kisu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kisu) $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-field-tested) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-09 08:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 08:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.54x 2026-11-09 08:39 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.54 18.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.62x 2026-11-09 08:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.54 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 11.0% covert 4.4% covert knife 1.5% Extraordinary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.2% extraordinary 2.0% violet 7.8% #8847ff 15.0% Mythical 27.0% consumer 31.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt