---
title: "Splash case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Splash ($78.61) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 81.11% over 7 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Splash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Splash

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=all)

Price · $78.61 · 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $70.75 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.11% · 7 openings, odds method

Variance · 40.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 56 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 7 openings · below min

30 days · 7 openings · below min

since tracking started · 7 openings · below min

-0.5% 291.5% 583.5%

**Small sample.** 7 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=24h) | 6 | 76.40% ±506.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=7d) | 7 | 81.11% ±468.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470) | 7 | 81.11% ±468.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/470?window=all) | 7 | 81.11% ±468.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $16.5K 16,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $13.5K 13,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $11K 11,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $960 960 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 143 | $650 650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $115 115 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-battle-scarred) | 14.2% | $86.00 86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.00 42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $16.00 16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=470`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=470)

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $86.00 86 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.09x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.91x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-field-tested) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) [@jordanr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/%40jordanr) $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $115 115 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.46x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.61 78.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $86.00 86 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.09x 2026-11-05 20:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $78.61 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.3% legendary 0.1% contraband 0.1% Covert 0.3% Extraordinary 14.2% restricted 5.0% classified 27.0% #EB4B4B 10.0% Restricted 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt