--- title: "Decrypt case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Decrypt ($1,993.74) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 17 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Decrypt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Decrypt A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=all) Price · $1,993.74 · 1,994 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,794.36 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 12.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/471?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $208K 208,211 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $125K 125,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $95.5K 95,493 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.3K 61,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $43K 43,030 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 333 | $29.5K 29,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 250 | $19K 19,016 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $7,850 7,850 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5,465 5,465 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $4,287 4,287 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3,475 3,475 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3,100 3,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1,381 1,381 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1,171 1,171 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 22.0% | $638 638 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 32.0% | $245 245 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=471`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=471) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,994 | 90.00% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 56.6% legendary 1.3% base 0.3% extraordinary 0.8% Covert 7.0% classified 12.0% rare 22.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt