--- title: "Sakura case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sakura ($906.56) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 2.54% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Sakura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Sakura A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=all) Price · $906.56 · 907 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $815.91 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 2.54% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 16.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 398.5% 797.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=7d) | 1 | 2.54% ±794.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472) | 1 | 2.54% ±794.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/472?window=all) | 1 | 2.54% ±794.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $95.5K 95,493 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $47.2K 47,194 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $36.9K 36,925 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $23.4K 23,443 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $16.5K 16,545 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $12.3K 12,345 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $10.2K 10,208 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $8,500 8,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2,079 2,079 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,522 1,522 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $435 435 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $315 315 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $205 205 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $135 135 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $74.00 74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 18.0% | $42.00 42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 27.0% | $23.00 23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=472`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=472) [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) Hidden $907 907 CSGOBIG\_COIN $23.00 23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 03:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $907 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.7% covert 40.3% restricted 5.0% rare 4.0% Covert 5.0% classified 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt