--- title: "5% Fantasy case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Fantasy ($200.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 0.02% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [5% Fantasy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 5% Fantasy A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=all) Price · $200.00 · 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $180.01 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.02% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 31.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 17 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 133.0% 266.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=7d) | 17 | 0.02% ±265.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48) | 18 | 0.02% ±258.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/48?window=all) | 18 | 0.02% ±258.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 55.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $950 950 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $647 647 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 95.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 18 | 17.1 | 1.05× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=48`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=48) [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:09 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 23:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 23:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 23:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 4.0% consumer 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt