--- title: "Pistol Lunacy case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pistol Lunacy ($7.70) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 10 items with odds, observed 67.61% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Pistol Lunacy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Pistol Lunacy A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=all) Price · $7.70 · 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $6.93 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.61% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min -0.5% 89.0% 178.5% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=7d) | 32 | 68.82% ±108.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51) | 34 | 67.61% ±105.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/51?window=all) | 34 | 67.61% ±105.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $260 260 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $174 174 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $98.00 98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $36.00 36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $27.00 27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $17.00 17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.18 8.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $5.99 5.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 75.0% | $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.5% | 28 | 25.5 | 1.10× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=51`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=51) [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.99 5.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.78x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [snixer34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/snixer34) $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [Meruem](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Meruem) $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.70 | 90.01% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 75.5% red 0.5% mil spec 1.0% covert 20.5% classified 2.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt