---
title: "Hardened Edge case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hardened Edge ($52.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Hardened Edge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Hardened Edge

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=all)

Price · $52.00 · 52 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $46.80 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/53?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $800 800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $280 280 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $180 180 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $120 120 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 79.0% | $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=53`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=53)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $52.00 | 89.99% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% gold 0.8% covert knife 3.0% classified 1.5% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 89.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt