--- title: "Feign Luck case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Feign Luck ($200.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 0.62% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Feign Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Feign Luck A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=all) Price · $200.00 · 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $180.00 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.62% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 28.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 2 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 369.3% 739.0% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=7d) | 2 | 0.62% ±737.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55) | 5 | 0.62% ±466.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/55?window=all) | 5 | 0.62% ±466.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 55.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $460 460 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $227 227 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 90.0% | $1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=55`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=55) [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 00:29 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 00:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% contraband 2.0% epic 3.0% classified 4.0% Mythical 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt