--- title: "Bargainnn case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bargainnn ($0.46) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 7 items with odds, observed 152.17% over 15 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Bargainnn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Bargainnn A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=all) Price · $0.46 · 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $0.41 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 152.17% · 15 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 15 openings · below min since tracking started · 15 openings · below min 89.0% 235.3% 381.5% **Small sample.** 15 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=24h) | 3 | 279.71% ±101.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=7d) | 14 | 162.89% ±46.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57) | 15 | 152.17% ±45.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/57?window=all) | 15 | 152.17% ±45.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.00 2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.7% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× | | [Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.0% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=57`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=57) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.61x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) [gh0st](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/gh0st) $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.61x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.46x 2026-11-09 23:49 UTC [Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-factory-new) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.80x 2026-11-09 04:49 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.72x 2026-11-09 04:49 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.46x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Discípulo do Yekindar SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Disc%C3%ADpulo%20do%20Yekindar%20SKINS) $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.46 | 89.85% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.0% restricted 3.0% Mythical 5.0% milspec 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0% mil spec 25.0% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt