---
title: "Mind Drift case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mind Drift ($12.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 125.46% over 10 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mind Drift](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mind Drift

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=all)

Price · $12.00 · 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.80 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 125.46% · 10 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 10 openings · below min

since tracking started · 10 openings · below min

-0.5% 284.0% 568.5%

**Small sample.** 10 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=24h) | 2 | 117.12% ±450.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=7d) | 4 | 64.08% ±318.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6) | 10 | 125.46% ±201.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/6?window=all) | 10 | 125.46% ±201.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $275 275 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $205 205 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Number K \| The Professionals agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/number-k-the-professionals) | 1 in 38 | $22.39 22.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 11.1% | $21.78 21.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $12.92 12.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 17 | $6.85 6.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| Freeze (Lenticular) sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeze-lenticular) | 1 in 22 | $2.30 2.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $1.80 1.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.58 1.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| Cloud9 \| London 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-london-2018) | 1 in 51 | $1.47 1.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Master Guardian (Holo) sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-master-guardian-holo) | 10.4% | $1.44 1.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Hiko \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hiko-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 31 | $1.31 1.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Hello FAMAS (Gold) sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-famas-gold) | 1 in 19 | $1.21 1.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| Chabo sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chabo) | 1 in 12 | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Tilt (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tilt-monster-purple) | 1 in 151 | $0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Double (Frog Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-double-frog-green) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=6`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=6)

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.33x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC

[Sticker | Hello FAMAS (Gold) sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-famas-gold) Hidden $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.21 1.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-05 02:48 UTC

[Sticker | Master Guardian (Holo) sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-master-guardian-holo) Hidden $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.44 1.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-04 19:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.00 | 90.00% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% restricted 20.2% superior 2.6% classified 9.8% industrial 9.1% #4B69FF 11.1% Extraordinary 4.6% violet 3.9% #8847FF 15.6% Rare 8.5% #B0C3D9 7.8% milspec 6.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt