--- title: "Fearful case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fearful ($11.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 3 items with odds, observed 4.36% over 19 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fearful](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fearful A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=all) Price · $11.00 · 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $9.90 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 4.36% · 19 openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 19 openings · below min since tracking started · 19 openings · below min -0.5% 377.3% 755.0% **Small sample.** 19 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=24h) | 1 | 4.36% ±749.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=7d) | 18 | 4.36% ±176.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65) | 19 | 4.36% ±172.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/65?window=all) | 19 | 4.36% ±172.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $272 272 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $168 168 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 67.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 19 | 18.1 | 1.05× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=65`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=65) [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-09 14:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) [Necrz25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Necrz25) $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-06 04:19 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-06 04:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.00 | 89.96% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% restricted 4.0% Consumer Grade 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt