--- title: "Ambition case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ambition ($10.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 5 items with odds, observed 103.44% over 47 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71 rendered: 2026-11-11T21:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ambition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ambition A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=all) Price · $10.00 · 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $9.00 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.44% · 47 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 47 openings · below min since tracking started · 47 openings · below min -0.5% 89.0% 178.5% **Small sample.** 47 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=24h) | 6 | 0.10% ±177.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=7d) | 46 | 90.47% ±64.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71) | 47 | 103.44% ±63.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/71?window=all) | 47 | 103.44% ±63.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $102 102 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $51.70 51.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $28.08 28.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.4% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 82.5% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=71`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=71) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [kacper ronaldo SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kacper%20ronaldo%20SKINS) $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $28.08 28.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.81x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 89.99% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.5% covert 15.0% consumer 82.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt