--- title: "Arctic Warfare case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arctic Warfare ($4.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 42.88% over 2 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Arctic Warfare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Arctic Warfare A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=all) Price · $4.00 · 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.60 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 42.88% · 2 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 2 openings · below min 30 days · 2 openings · below min since tracking started · 2 openings · below min -0.5% 102.3% 205.0% **Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=7d) | 2 | 42.88% ±161.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76) | 2 | 42.88% ±161.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/76?window=all) | 2 | 42.88% ±161.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $19.90 19.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $19.90 19.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 32.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $6.07 6.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) | 11.0% | $4.74 4.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.56 4.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $2.89 2.89 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| coldzera \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-cologne-2016) | 10.3% | $2.67 2.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $2.51 2.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.98 1.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| coldzera \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-krakow-2017) | 1 in 12 | $1.78 1.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $1.78 1.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| coldzera \| London 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-london-2018) | 1 in 13 | $0.80 0.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-urban-perforated-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Parched (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-parched-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Facility Dark (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=76`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=76) [Souvenir Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) [L3lit014\_SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/L3lit014_SKINS) $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-07 15:59 UTC [Sticker | coldzera | Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-cologne-2016) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.67 2.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-05 01:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 20.4% #5E98D9 7.8% Industrial Grade 20.0% Restricted 6.5% #4B69FF 26.5% violet 7.8% #8847FF 7.1% #B0C3D9 3.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt