--- title: "Samurai Showdown case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Samurai Showdown ($22.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 36.64% over 2 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Samurai Showdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Samurai Showdown A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=all) Price · $22.00 · 22 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.80 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.64% · 2 openings, odds method Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 2 openings · below min since tracking started · 2 openings · below min -0.5% 221.5% 443.5% **Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81) | 2 | 36.64% ±406.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/81?window=all) | 2 | 36.64% ±406.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $300 300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $28.49 28.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 10.5% | $21.48 21.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $17.38 17.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 13.3% | $16.08 16.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $13.50 13.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $3.20 3.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.54 2.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.34 1.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 11.4% | $0.73 0.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=81`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=81) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.00 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 23.8% classified 40.0% Classified 5.7% milspec 15.2% #4B69FF 2.9% Consumer Grade 4.8% consumer 1.0% #B0C3D9 6.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt