---
title: "Celestial Stars case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Celestial Stars ($300.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Celestial Stars](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Celestial Stars

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=all)

Price · $300.00 · 300 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $270.00 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/99?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 40.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $550 550 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $340 340 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $255 255 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $219 219 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $190 190 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $185 185 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $163 163 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $159 159 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $152 152 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $126 126 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $74.12 74.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $38.48 38.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $19.91 19.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=99`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=99)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $300 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 20.0% covert 46.5% sunny 0.6% covert knife 15.9% Covert 5.3% Legendary 1.2% Industrial Grade 2.4% Consumer Grade 3.5% industrial 4.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt