--- title: "Covert case on CSGOCASES: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Covert ($48.99) on CSGOCASES, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.31% over 4,074 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) / [Covert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1) # [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) · Covert A case on CSGOCASES (Quality cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOCASES's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=all) Price · $48.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.31% · 4,074 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 393 openings · below min 7 days · 85.13% ±6.31 2,643 openings 30 days · 94.31% ±13.42 4,074 openings since tracking started · 94.31% ±13.42 4,074 openings 75.5% 92.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=24h) | 393 | 84.40% ±8.32 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=7d) | 2,643 | 85.13% ±6.31 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1) | 4,074 | 94.31% ±13.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/covert-1?window=all) | 4,074 | 94.31% ±13.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** CSGOCASES publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are CSGOCASES's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [TsujiroKimimame](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/TsujiroKimimame) $48.99 $12.3K 250.4x 2026-11-04 02:22 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [zald](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/zald) $48.99 $3,576 73.00x 2026-11-04 15:12 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [DMG™ bucuresti.llg.ro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/DMG%E2%84%A2%20bucuresti.llg.ro) $48.99 $2,631 53.71x 2026-11-03 13:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) [DMG™ bucuresti.llg.ro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/DMG%E2%84%A2%20bucuresti.llg.ro) $48.99 $2,574 52.55x 2026-11-03 13:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [Lulao](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Lulao) $48.99 $2,203 44.97x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $48.99 $1,310 26.73x 2026-11-08 17:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [DMG™ bucuresti.llg.ro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/DMG%E2%84%A2%20bucuresti.llg.ro) $48.99 $948 19.36x 2026-11-03 13:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [TajmonTJ #JPZB](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/TajmonTJ%20%20%23JPZB) $48.99 $810 16.53x 2026-11-05 01:30 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [ghostboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/ghostboy) $48.99 $803 16.40x 2026-11-09 20:16 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) [DMG™ bucuresti.llg.ro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/DMG%E2%84%A2%20bucuresti.llg.ro) $48.99 $594 12.12x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgocases&case=covert-1) ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [eduard CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/eduard%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $48.99 $30.24 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [eduard CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/eduard%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $48.99 $30.24 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [eduard CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/eduard%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $48.99 $49.57 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $49.57 1.01x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $49.57 1.01x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $49.57 1.01x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $49.57 1.01x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $30.24 0.62x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [The Elite Mr. Muhlik | Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $23.69 0.48x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [cfg.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/cfg.) $48.99 $30.24 0.62x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $48.99 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $12.3K (250.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.31 on average: an expected loss of $5.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt