--- title: "Fade case on CSGOCASES: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fade ($8.49) on CSGOCASES, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 137.51% over 2,092 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) / [Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1) # [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) · Fade A case on CSGOCASES (Unique cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOCASES's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=all) Price · $8.49 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 137.51% · 2,092 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 115 openings · below min 7 days · 144.96% ±75.05 1,684 openings 30 days · 137.51% ±61.04 2,092 openings since tracking started · 137.51% ±61.04 2,092 openings 43.0% 131.8% 220.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=24h) | 115 | 87.72% ±44.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=7d) | 1,684 | 144.96% ±75.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1) | 2,092 | 137.51% ±61.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/fade-1?window=all) | 2,092 | 137.51% ±61.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** CSGOCASES publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are CSGOCASES's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [ghostboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/ghostboy) $8.49 $5,063 596.3x 2026-11-05 20:54 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [zald](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/zald) $8.49 $1,374 161.9x 2026-11-04 15:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [ANCHOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/ANCHOR) $8.49 $1,164 137.1x 2026-11-09 08:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [Chetras-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Chetras-) $8.49 $541 63.66x 2026-11-03 23:01 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [Chetras-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Chetras-) $8.49 $493 58.04x 2026-11-03 19:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [WOODYWALKER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/WOODYWALKER) $8.49 $468 55.14x 2026-11-09 20:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Norm4NR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Norm4NR) $8.49 $468 55.14x 2026-11-08 09:18 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) [twitch.tv/yDiony](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/twitch.tv%2FyDiony) $8.49 $451 53.09x 2026-11-08 04:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgocases&case=fade-1) [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $3.89 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $1.15 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $2.59 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $3.89 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $1.15 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $3.89 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $3.89 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $1.15 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $4.29 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Kukuś92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Kuku%C5%9B92) $8.49 $2.59 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $8.49 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,063 (596.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 137.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $137.51 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt