--- title: "Falchion case on CSGOCASES: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Falchion ($1.39) on CSGOCASES, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.98% over 431 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) / [Falchion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion) # [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) · Falchion A case on CSGOCASES (CS2 cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOCASES's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=all) Price · $1.39 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.98% · 431 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 119 openings · below min 7 days · 360 openings · below min 30 days · 431 openings · below min since tracking started · 431 openings · below min 80.0% 85.3% 90.5% **Small sample.** 431 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=24h) | 119 | 85.04% ±4.39 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=7d) | 360 | 86.64% ±3.17 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion) | 431 | 86.98% ±2.92 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/falchion?window=all) | 431 | 86.98% ±2.92 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** CSGOCASES publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are CSGOCASES's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgocases&case=falchion) [Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) [Pudzian DDL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Pudzian%20DDL) $1.39 $1.09 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) [Pudzian DDL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/Pudzian%20DDL) $1.39 $1.49 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $0.81 0.58x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $1.61 1.16x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $1.61 1.16x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $0.81 0.58x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-minimal-wear) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $1.53 1.10x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $1.09 0.78x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $1.21 0.87x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-field-tested) [ツFR3$Hツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/%E3%83%84FR3%24H%E3%83%84) $1.39 $0.81 0.58x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.39 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.98 on average: an expected loss of $13.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt