--- title: "Lucky case on CSGOCASES: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lucky ($5.49) on CSGOCASES, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.14% over 801 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) / [Lucky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky) # [CSGOCASES](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgocases) · Lucky A case on CSGOCASES (Unique cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOCASES's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=all) Price · $5.49 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.14% · 801 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 729 openings · below min 30 days · 801 openings · below min since tracking started · 801 openings · below min 39.5% 76.0% 112.5% **Small sample.** 801 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=24h) | 28 | 72.61% ±32.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=7d) | 729 | 87.02% ±24.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky) | 801 | 86.14% ±22.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgocases/lucky?window=all) | 801 | 86.14% ±22.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** CSGOCASES publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are CSGOCASES's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [CrAwL06™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/CrAwL06%E2%84%A2) $5.49 $456 82.99x 2026-11-06 19:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgocases&case=lucky) [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $0.50 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $7.43 1.35x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $0.50 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $2.38 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $7.43 1.35x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/aramando.briceagCS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.49 $2.38 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [amiri](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/amiri) $5.49 $7.43 1.35x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [abr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/abr) $5.49 $23.25 4.23x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [abr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/abr) $5.49 $7.43 1.35x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [abr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgocases/abr) $5.49 $7.43 1.35x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $5.49 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $456 (82.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.14 on average: an expected loss of $13.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt