---
title: "Aquatic case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aquatic ($93.13) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 22 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Aquatic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Aquatic

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=all)

Price · $93.13 · 152 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $84.94 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 37.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/aquatic?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,239 6,900 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $3,815 6,211 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $3,645 5,934 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $3,391 5,520 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $2,544 4,141 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,696 2,761 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,272 2,071 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $848 1,380 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $763 1,243 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $593 966 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $339 552 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 250 | $212 345 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $170 277 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $144 235 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $136 221 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $127 207 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 13.5% | $118 192 coins | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 16.3% | $110 179 coins | 21.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 15.0% | $93.29 152 coins | 16.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 10.5% | $59.39 96.68 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $25.46 41.44 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $8.48 13.81 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=aquatic)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $93.13 | 91.20% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 20.7% covert 30.6% epic 0.0% classified 0.2% red 13.9% violet 15.0% Ancient 19.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt