---
title: "Armed Conflict case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Armed Conflict ($0.69) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.09% from 25 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Armed Conflict](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Armed Conflict

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=all)

Price · $0.69 · 1.12 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.09% · EV $0.63 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 44.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 53.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/armed-conflict?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,433 2,334 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $81.13 132 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $79.57 130 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $62.07 101 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $35.82 58.31 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $27.88 45.39 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $20.46 33.31 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $18.05 29.38 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.75 19.12 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.05 14.74 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $6.13 9.98 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Facets (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $2.63 4.28 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.50 4.07 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $2.39 3.89 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $1.54 2.51 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $1.16 1.89 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.04 1.69 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.96 1.56 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.92 1.5 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $0.85 1.38 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.79 1.29 coins | 20.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 15.5% | $0.68 1.11 coins | 16.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.43 0.7 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 0.29 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-grip-battle-scarred) | 19.0% | $0.06 0.1 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=armed-conflict)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.69 | 91.09% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% restricted 11.7% industrial 0.1% red 0.0% milspec 19.1% Mil Spec Grade 7.6% Mythical 1.4% #8847ff 4.3% #eb4b4b 5.8% #4b69ff 25.5% mil spec 15.5% Common 9.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.09 on average: an expected loss of $8.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt