--- title: "Black Death case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Death ($409.11) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 11 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Black Death](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Black Death A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=all) Price · $409.11 · 666 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $373.11 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 37.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 77 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-death?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Bird other](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-bird) | 1 in 12,500 | $94.1K 153,180 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo) | 1 in 8,333 | $47K 76,590 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $36.8K 59,940 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo) | 1 in 769 | $30.7K 49,951 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo) | 1 in 500 | $24.5K 39,961 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $19.2K 31,303 coins | 15.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 167 | $10.6K 17,316 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $6,955 11,323 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $2,987 4,863 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $2,209 3,596 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Rising Skull sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rising-skull) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=black-death) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $409 | 91.20% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.4% legendary 1.2% extraordinary 1.1% covert 2.3% High Grade 95.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt