--- title: "Black Pearl case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Pearl ($147.26) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 15 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl rendered: 2026-11-11T22:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Black Pearl A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=all) Price · $147.26 · 240 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $134.30 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 19.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 31 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/black-pearl?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $14.4K 23,512 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 800 | $7,218 11,750 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 667 | $5,052 8,225 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 571 | $3,609 5,875 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $2,165 3,525 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $1,732 2,820 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $1,444 2,351 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 222 | $1,371 2,232 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 167 | $1,299 2,115 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 111 | $1,227 1,997 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 87 | $1,155 1,880 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 74 | $931 1,516 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 61 | $866 1,410 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 38 | $722 1,175 coins | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Karambit (Monster Purple) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit-monster-purple) | 90.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=black-pearl) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $147 | 91.20% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% Base Grade 90.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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