--- title: "Butterfly Effect case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Butterfly Effect ($67.59) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 19 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Butterfly Effect](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Butterfly Effect A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=all) Price · $67.59 · 110 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $61.64 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 51.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/butterfly-effect?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,531 2,492 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $921 1,499 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $902 1,469 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $869 1,415 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $614 1,000 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $551 897 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $429 698 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $243 396 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $153 248 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $121 197 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $104 169 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $97.42 159 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $91.93 150 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 13.1% | $84.68 138 coins | 18.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 16.3% | $78.90 128 coins | 20.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 15.2% | $66.68 109 coins | 16.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $41.63 67.77 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $17.88 29.1 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 17.8% | $6.14 10 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=butterfly-effect) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $67.59 | 91.20% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 24.6% gold 5.2% Immortal 0.0% #ffd700 6.0% Covert 13.1% restricted 15.2% #8847ff 9.7% Classified 8.5% Legendary 17.8% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt