---
title: "Commonwealth case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Commonwealth ($814.47) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 20 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Commonwealth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Commonwealth

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=all)

Price · $814.47 · 1,326 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $742.80 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 48.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/commonwealth?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $24K 39,008 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $20K 32,498 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $17.6K 28,599 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $14.4K 23,399 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $12K 19,498 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $7,985 12,999 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $6,388 10,399 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 154 | $5,190 8,450 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $2,595 4,225 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $1,596 2,599 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1,397 2,275 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,278 2,080 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1,158 1,885 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1,038 1,690 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 12 | $958 1,560 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $918 1,495 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 10.5% | $838 1,365 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 12.5% | $439 715 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 15.5% | $200 325 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $79.84 130 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=commonwealth)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $814 | 91.20% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 19.8% covert 69.7% contraband 0.1% classified 10.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt