---
title: "CT Upgrade case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CT Upgrade ($4.75) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [CT Upgrade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · CT Upgrade

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=all)

Price · $4.75 · 7.73 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $4.33 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $540 879 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $208 338 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $81.82 133 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $66.34 108 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $48.65 79.2 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $36.71 59.76 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $28.75 46.81 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $13.70 22.31 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $11.49 18.71 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.17 16.56 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $9.28 15.11 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $7.75 12.61 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $7.29 11.87 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $6.19 10.08 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.30 8.63 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.18 5.17 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.88 1.43 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir P2000 \| Grassland (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p2000-grassland-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.44 0.72 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=ct-upgrade)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $4.75 | 91.18% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 10.9% covert 3.3% red 0.2% restricted 10.5% Covert 3.6% Rare 6.5% consumer 10.0% industrial 25.0% Industrial Grade 30.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt