--- title: "Death To Monarch case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Death To Monarch ($496.34) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 19 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch rendered: 2026-11-12T01:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Death To Monarch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Death To Monarch A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=all) Price · $496.34 · 808 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $452.66 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/death-to-monarch?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Killian's Champagne other](https://gambatracker.com/items/killians-champagne) | 1 in 1,000 | $20.3K 33,128 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $8,934 14,544 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $4,467 7,273 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $3,921 6,383 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $3,400 5,535 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $2,780 4,525 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $2,234 3,636 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $1,936 3,151 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $1,688 2,747 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1,340 2,182 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1,092 1,778 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $893 1,454 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $745 1,213 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $596 970 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $472 768 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $397 646 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $273 444 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $145 237 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Loser (Tiger Orange) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-loser-tiger-orange) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=death-to-monarch) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $496 | 91.20% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 50.1% legendary 1.5% contraband 0.3% covert 25.1% extraordinary 8.6% epic 3.8% classified 10.6% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt