--- title: "Desert Bandit case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Desert Bandit ($6.28) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.21% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit rendered: 2026-11-12T00:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Desert Bandit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Desert Bandit A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=all) Price · $6.28 · 10.22 coins Advertised RTP · 91.21% · EV $5.73 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desert-bandit?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $572 931 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $264 431 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $105 170 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $86.10 140 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $62.74 102 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $47.36 77.1 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $33.83 55.07 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $24.60 40.05 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $19.68 32.04 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $17.22 28.03 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $14.15 23.03 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $12.30 20.02 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $9.84 16.02 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $8.61 14.02 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $6.76 11.01 coins | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-well-worn) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=desert-bandit) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.28 | 91.21% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.4% classified 3.8% Covert 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.7% extraordinary 0.5% restricted 2.5% violet 3.7% industrial 6.5% Legendary 7.4% #8847ff 9.2% milspec 20.0% Common 20.0% consumer 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.21 on average: an expected loss of $8.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt