---
title: "Desire case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Desire ($54.47) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Desire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Desire

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=all)

Price · $54.47 · 88.68 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $49.68 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/desire?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,474 5,655 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,405 3,915 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $1,336 2,175 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $616 1,003 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $427 696 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $306 498 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $203 330 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $150 243 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $112 183 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $96.14 157 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $88.19 144 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $66.73 109 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $58.74 95.62 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Graffiti \| Piggles (Monster Purple) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/graffiti-piggles-monster-purple) | 17.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Graffiti \| Lightbulb (Tracer Yellow) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/graffiti-lightbulb-tracer-yellow) | 22.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Graffiti \| Ninja (Brick Red) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/graffiti-ninja-brick-red) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=desire)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $54.47 | 91.20% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% covert 23.4% Covert 1.2% classified 4.2% Ancient 6.1% other 65.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt