--- title: "Deviate case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Deviate ($6.58) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.21% from 13 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Deviate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Deviate A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=all) Price · $6.58 · 10.71 coins Advertised RTP · 91.21% · EV $6.00 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 22.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/deviate?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $968 1,576 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $742 1,208 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $484 787 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $323 525 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 800 | $226 367 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $194 315 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $161 263 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $129 210 coins | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $103 168 coins | 18.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $90.32 147 coins | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $74.17 121 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-well-worn) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=deviate) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.58 | 91.21% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% epic 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% gold 0.4% covert knife 1.1% #87c7ff 45.0% milspec 50.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.21 on average: an expected loss of $8.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt