---
title: "Doppler Effect case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Doppler Effect ($3.19) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 22 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Doppler Effect](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Doppler Effect

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=all)

Price · $3.19 · 5.2 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $2.91 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 37.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/doppler-effect?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $153 249 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 16,667 | $138 225 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $131 214 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $122 199 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $91.69 149 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $57.93 94.3 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $45.01 73.27 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $30.59 49.79 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $26.81 43.65 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $21.47 34.95 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $12.06 19.64 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $7.67 12.48 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $6.13 9.98 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.87 7.92 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $4.61 7.51 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.49 7.31 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 13.5% | $3.97 6.47 coins | 18.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 16.3% | $3.52 5.73 coins | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.36 5.47 coins | 17.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 10.5% | $2.07 3.37 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.92 1.5 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-battle-scarred) | 19.5% | $0.30 0.49 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=doppler-effect)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $3.19 | 91.18% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.9% Covert 0.0% classified 5.8% Mil Spec Grade 0.4% Legendary 3.6% red 13.5% mil spec 16.3% Mythical 10.5% #8847ff 7.5% milspec 19.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt