--- title: "Expensive Knives case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Expensive Knives ($596.33) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives rendered: 2026-11-11T20:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Expensive Knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Expensive Knives A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=all) Price · $596.33 · 971 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $543.85 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/expensive-knives?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,343 15,209 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,544 9,025 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,793 6,175 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,919 4,751 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 80 | $1,871 3,046 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,520 2,475 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1,169 1,904 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 18 | $963 1,568 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $846 1,377 coins | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $705 1,147 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $613 998 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $497 810 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 10.3% | $406 661 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 12.0% | $321 523 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 13.5% | $239 389 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 16.5% | $175 285 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=expensive-knives) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $596 | 91.20% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 65.0% legendary 2.5% epic 16.0% gold 16.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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