--- title: "Faded case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Faded ($30.67) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 13 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded rendered: 2026-11-12T01:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Faded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Faded A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=all) Price · $30.67 · 49.93 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $27.97 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 19.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/faded?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,937 4,781 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,499 2,440 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $935 1,522 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $677 1,102 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $445 724 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $370 603 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $300 488 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $249 405 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $241 392 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $170 277 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $150 244 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $136 221 coins | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-well-worn) | 90.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=faded) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.67 | 91.20% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.3% legendary 0.1% epic 0.5% milspec 90.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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