---
title: "Howling Dawn case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Howling Dawn ($639.09) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Howling Dawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Howling Dawn

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=all)

Price · $639.09 · 1,040 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $582.85 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/howling-dawn?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $61.5K 100,124 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo) | 1 in 2,222 | $36.9K 60,074 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo) | 1 in 690 | $19.7K 32,040 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 513 | $9,226 15,019 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo) | 1 in 200 | $6,765 11,014 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $5,105 8,310 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $3,690 6,007 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming) | 1 in 80 | $2,645 4,305 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $2,116 3,444 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,845 3,004 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1,538 2,503 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1,353 2,203 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 21 | $1,046 1,702 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $923 1,502 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 13 | $738 1,201 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=howling-dawn)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $639 | 91.20% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.5% other 1.9% contraband 5.0% extraordinary 2.7% Covert 3.0% knifes 3.1% Immortal 3.7% Restricted 25.0% industrial 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt