--- title: "Lightning case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lightning ($8.22) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.22% from 14 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Lightning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Lightning A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=all) Price · $8.22 · 13.38 coins Advertised RTP · 91.22% · EV $7.50 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lightning?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $742 1,208 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $343 559 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $135 220 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $95.04 155 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $62.03 101 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $43.02 70.03 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $27.91 45.44 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $19.11 31.11 coins | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $16.77 27.3 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $13.29 21.64 coins | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $10.69 17.41 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $9.37 15.25 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=lightning) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $8.22 | 91.22% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% pink 0.9% classified 14.2% violet 23.5% Classified 6.2% milspec 6.6% mil spec 8.2% blue 40.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.22 on average: an expected loss of $8.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt