--- title: "Lover Boy case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lover Boy ($3.79) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.24% from 23 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy rendered: 2026-11-11T23:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Lover Boy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Lover Boy A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=all) Price · $3.79 · 6.17 coins Advertised RTP · 91.24% · EV $3.46 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/lover-boy?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $368 599 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $327 533 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $264 430 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $214 349 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $210 342 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $179 291 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $138 225 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $95.85 156 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $81.34 132 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $73.54 120 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $59.98 97.65 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $45.90 74.72 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $30.57 49.77 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $12.78 20.81 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $7.67 12.48 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.51 8.97 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.29 6.99 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $3.83 6.24 coins | 15.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 13.5% | $3.68 5.99 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $3.37 5.49 coins | 16.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $2.14 3.49 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Goofy (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-goofy-holo) | 1 in 11 | $0.91 1.48 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-bazooka-pink) | 18.5% | $0.30 0.49 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=lover-boy) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $3.79 | 91.24% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.6% extraordinary 0.2% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 5.1% restricted 10.7% industrial 1.4% Mil Spec Grade 3.8% mil spec 7.5% #8847ff 14.0% Legendary 16.6% other 8.7% Base Grade 18.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.24 on average: an expected loss of $8.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt