---
title: "Match Surrendered case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Match Surrendered ($20.27) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.21% from 7 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Match Surrendered](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Match Surrendered

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=all)

Price · $20.27 · 33 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.21% · EV $18.49 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/match-surrendered?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Fr\*nch Flag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fr-nch-flag) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,034 1,683 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-foil) | 1 in 122 | $233 380 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $122 198 coins | 18.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $81.23 132 coins | 24.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $50.68 82.51 coins | 21.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $33.29 54.19 coins | 23.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Puke (Shark White) graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-puke-shark-white) | 70.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=match-surrendered)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.27 | 91.21% | 7 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.9% mil spec 2.8% restricted 5.7% classified 20.7% Graffiti 70.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.21 on average: an expected loss of $8.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt