--- title: "Mystery Knife case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystery Knife ($25.38) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.19% from 13 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife rendered: 2026-11-12T02:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Mystery Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Mystery Knife A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=all) Price · $25.38 · 41.32 coins Advertised RTP · 91.19% · EV $23.15 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 22.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/mystery-knife?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,752 4,480 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,195 1,946 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $842 1,370 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $604 984 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $380 619 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $295 480 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $245 398 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $194 316 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $175 284 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $147 240 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $124 202 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $106 172 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| X-Knives (Brick Red) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-x-knives-brick-red) | 90.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=mystery-knife) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $25.38 | 91.19% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.8% gold 2.1% epic 0.3% #ffd700 0.9% Common 90.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.19 on average: an expected loss of $8.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt