---
title: "Natural Disaster case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Natural Disaster ($5.60) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.23% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Natural Disaster](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Natural Disaster

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=all)

Price · $5.60 · 9.11 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.23% · EV $5.11 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/natural-disaster?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Major Trophy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/major-trophy) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,783 2,903 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 935 | $224 364 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $95.13 155 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $47.57 77.44 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $27.98 45.55 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $21.27 34.62 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $13.99 22.78 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $12.59 20.5 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $10.63 17.31 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $8.96 14.58 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $8.11 13.21 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.27 11.84 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $6.16 10.02 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 11.3% | $2.80 4.56 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.12 1.82 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 28.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=natural-disaster)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $5.60 | 91.23% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.0% covert knife 0.1% extraordinary 0.4% covert 9.6% classified 4.5% mil spec 6.3% Rare 3.1% industrial 6.9% consumer 8.9% restricted 11.3% Consumer Grade 20.0% Industrial Grade 28.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.23 on average: an expected loss of $8.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt