---
title: "Navaja Ninja case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Navaja Ninja ($4.36) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 17 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja
rendered: 2026-11-12T09:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Navaja Ninja](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Navaja Ninja

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=all)

Price · $4.36 · 7.1 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $3.98 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/navaja-ninja?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $344 561 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $155 252 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $61.99 101 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $47.36 77.1 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $37.02 60.27 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $27.99 45.56 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $19.80 32.24 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $12.92 21.03 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $11.41 18.57 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $9.90 16.12 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $8.18 13.32 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $6.89 11.21 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.81 9.46 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $4.95 8.06 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $4.52 7.36 coins | 14.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 12 Nov, 03:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=navaja-ninja)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $4.36 | 91.18% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.2% covert 9.9% classified 27.1% restricted 5.7% pink 7.2% Common 20.0% blue 30.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt