---
title: "Neon case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neon ($587.97) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 20 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Neon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Neon

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=all)

Price · $587.97 · 957 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $536.23 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/neon?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $17.3K 28,203 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,250 | $11.5K 18,801 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 370 | $8,661 14,100 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $5,198 8,461 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $3,754 6,110 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 105 | $2,541 4,136 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $1,790 2,914 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 69 | $1,501 2,444 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 48 | $1,328 2,162 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 36 | $1,213 1,974 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1,126 1,833 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1,039 1,692 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $953 1,551 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 22 | $866 1,410 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $751 1,222 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 18 | $693 1,128 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $664 1,081 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $623 1,014 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=neon)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $588 | 91.20% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.6% covert 32.3% epic 0.7% classified 9.3% legendary 6.2% pink 25.0% #8847ff 25.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt