---
title: "Old Steel case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Old Steel ($1.83) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.28% from 15 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Old Steel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Old Steel

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=all)

Price · $1.83 · 2.98 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.28% · EV $1.67 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 11.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/old-steel?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $183 298 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $91.63 149 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $39.39 64.12 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $27.44 44.67 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $18.12 29.5 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $12.83 20.88 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $12.43 20.24 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $8.02 13.06 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $5.47 8.91 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.30 7 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.65 5.95 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $2.75 4.47 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.38 3.87 coins | 21.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-ancient-ritual-well-worn) | 35.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=old-steel)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.83 | 91.28% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% covert 1.1% Industrial Grade 0.8% mil spec 0.6% restricted 1.0% Mythical 3.5% industrial 7.0% #4b69ff 6.0% common 15.0% blue 30.0% other 35.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.28 on average: an expected loss of $8.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt