---
title: "Onyx case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Onyx ($33.22) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Onyx](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Onyx

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=all)

Price · $33.22 · 54.08 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $30.30 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/onyx?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,498 2,438 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $978 1,592 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $912 1,484 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $511 832 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $391 637 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $309 504 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $173 282 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $138 225 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $107 175 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $80.54 131 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $61.91 101 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $53.72 87.46 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $45.59 74.21 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=onyx)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $33.22 | 91.20% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.3% gold 0.4% extraordinary 0.7% covert knife 4.5% legendary 1.1% restricted 2.8% industrial 33.1% mil spec 3.3% #4b69ff 25.0% #87c7ff 25.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt