--- title: "Police Raid case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Police Raid ($1,913.34) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 14 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid rendered: 2026-11-11T17:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Police Raid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Police Raid A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=all) Price · $1,913.34 · 3,115 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $1,744.97 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/police-raid?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $73.8K 120,149 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo) | 1 in 476 | $49.1K 80,000 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo) | 1 in 357 | $24.9K 40,550 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo) | 1 in 222 | $20.3K 33,041 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 133 | $15.7K 25,532 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 83 | $9,595 15,619 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $7,381 12,015 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $6,827 11,114 coins | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 15 | $5,351 8,711 coins | 20.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 12 | $3,044 4,956 coins | 14.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2,214 3,604 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.10 0.17 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.05 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.05 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=police-raid) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1,913 | 91.20% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 25.0% covert 23.4% other 0.9% extraordinary 5.7% blue 25.0% mil spec 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt