---
title: "Primal Instinct case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Primal Instinct ($10.04) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 15 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Primal Instinct](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Primal Instinct

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=all)

Price · $10.04 · 16.35 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $9.16 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/primal-instinct?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $933 1,519 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $397 646 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $168 274 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $118 192 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $76.35 124 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $55.08 89.67 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $34.39 55.98 coins | 13.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $23.70 38.58 coins | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $20.66 33.63 coins | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $16.20 26.38 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $12.74 20.74 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $10.82 17.61 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Lab Rats (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-lab-rats-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=primal-instinct)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $10.04 | 91.18% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 20.0% covert 27.3% extraordinary 0.1% pink 0.1% classified 12.5% Restricted 20.0% mil spec 20.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt