--- title: "Red Alert case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Red Alert ($0.09) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.33% from 19 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Red Alert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Red Alert A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=all) Price · $0.09 · 0.14 coins Advertised RTP · 92.33% · EV $0.08 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 410.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/red-alert?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $245 398 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $15.91 25.9 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $0.96 1.56 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 345 | $0.76 1.24 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $0.50 0.81 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $0.50 0.81 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $0.37 0.6 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $0.33 0.54 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.21 0.34 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.19 0.31 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.18 0.3 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.14 0.23 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $0.13 0.21 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.11 0.18 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 12.4% | $0.11 0.18 coins | 17.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.05 0.08 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=red-alert) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.09 | 92.33% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.2% milspec 0.3% #4b69ff 30.8% restricted 1.5% Rare 2.2% blue 8.5% mil spec 4.3% industrial 17.2% violet 15.0% #87c7ff 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.33 on average: an expected loss of $7.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt