---
title: "Sweet Dreams case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sweet Dreams ($307.05) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 19 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Sweet Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Sweet Dreams

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=all)

Price · $307.05 · 500 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $280.03 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/sweet-dreams?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.1K 24,502 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $6,020 9,800 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $4,816 7,840 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $3,762 6,125 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 222 | $3,311 5,389 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,708 4,409 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $2,107 3,430 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,655 2,695 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $1,234 2,009 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $1,174 1,911 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,114 1,813 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $902 1,469 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $752 1,225 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $497 808 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $467 759 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $361 588 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-well-worn) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=sweet-dreams)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $307 | 91.20% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.6% contraband 0.1% extraordinary 1.8% epic 3.2% #eb4b4b 3.6% restricted 4.0% classified 5.7% #777777 20.0% Common 25.0% milspec 25.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt